Big Swell

[tomtuberider_1]

hey
has anyone cheked out the latest swell perdictions for this time next week,
some say 5 to 6 meters :|

[endo]

all the charts point towards some serious activity off the east coast next week? can any weather gurus can confirm this?

[Donweather]

All depends on the exact location of the east coast low next week. Still some divergence in models, but there's very high confidence that we will have some solid swell at some stage next week. Looks like it will be rather blowey from the SSE/SE early-mid next week, so I'd be putting my money on some better conditions and more longer range groundswells towards the end of next week as opposed to the beginning of the week, when it's likely to be a confused windswell. Winds look a whole lot friendly then.

http://www.burleighcam.com.au/kegtalk/showthread.php?t=2634&page=21

http://www.swellnet.com.au/forecast.php?state_id=1&region_id=17

[Donweather]

Gee it's been incredibly quiet on here the last week or so. I'm expecting to see a floury of action later in the week given the anticipated swell.

[darth_waver]

anyone keen on a southbound mission?

[george]

Im keen but mum is a bit "not keen"

[Donweather]

Just don't tell her Georgey!!!

[darth_waver]

where are you going to be in the morning georgey?

[george]

fark.. youse carnts will lead me astray.. I swear...

Tomorrow Darthie.. I will sipping Lattes in George St.

[Donweather]

I will sipping Lattes in George St.Sounds like a tough job there Georgey!!!

[george]

it is mate... you around??? town that is...

[darth_waver]

oi send me your number mate i got a new phone.. are you in sydney george?

[Cazza]

is anyone planning on a trip south from bris for this swell? i am keen to hit it up but my god damn car is broke.

[darth_waver]

yeah mate.. if you want you can hitch a ride.. im going down to greeny tomorrow but ill probably head lukea or ballidawg thurs or friday.. keen?

[george]

pete Beattie has arranged a train fer ya mate....

[Cazza]

yeh possibly darthy im keen for thurs/fri or whatever. will check work schedule and let ya know.

[Donweather]

it is mate... you around??? town that is...Would love to sip coffee with ya all day Georgey, but tomorrow is not a good one. Bizee from 8:30 right through til 5pm unfortunately.

[casabonitas]

Donny, am looking to take a half day off work on thursday morn/arvo or possibly friday? what are your thoughts based on the current conditions. How big are you expecting the superbank to be on those days??

Will the swell be too big for tos/winds fuk it up?

appreciate your help champ

[Surfer Jo]

Been some ncie waves over the ditch :) below is what we had on the west coast last weekend...right now gale force easterly winds have wipped up a 5m swell on our east coast, innner city beaches (which often dont reach 2ft) are breaking at about 4-6ft and its blown the west flat...looking really good for the weekend tho.

(pictures aint mine, taken from a NZ surf fourm)

http://i211.photobucket.com/albums/bb212/matariki_2007/DSC_0019.jpg
http://i211.photobucket.com/albums/bb212/matariki_2007/DSC_0064.jpg
http://bp0.blogger.com/_OjdWUxXDCVk/RpCfTqGwgII/AAAAAAAAABc/Xj41IvgJQgs/s1600/DSC_0148%2Bcopy.jpg

All pictures taken from the same spot Piha on Aucklands west coast.

[george]

Donny, am looking to take a half day off work on thursday morn/arvo or possibly friday? what are your thoughts based on the current conditions. How big are you expecting the superbank to be on those days??

Will the swell be too big for tos/winds fuk it up?

appreciate your help champ

what he means Donnie is...

Is it worth ditchin work on Friday arvo and hitting up Burls for some golden arvo sun.....

[Donweather]

Donny, am looking to take a half day off work on thursday morn/arvo or possibly friday? what are your thoughts based on the current conditions. How big are you expecting the superbank to be on those days??

Will the swell be too big for tos/winds fuk it up?

appreciate your help champHey Casa, long time no hear mate. At this stage the swell looks to peak late on Thursday evening, so swell heights late on Thursday afternoon and early on Friday morning look to be very similar. The swell is predicted to be a solid SE groundswell, so outer Snapper should be seeing inconsistent sets in the 6ft+, possibly the very very odd freak 8ft set. It's all courtesy of the current low positioned just to the NW of NZ which is undergoing some rapid intensification as we speak (see below).

Wind wise there's still some slight divergence in computer models as to the exact location of yet another ECL forming somewhere between the north NSW coast and the southern NSW coast Thursday night and intensifying slightly into Friday as it moves southwards. Therefore, Thursday afternoon may see winds not as favourable as Friday, when the low should be further southwards and hence have a better chance of obtaining SW winds on Friday morning, whereas Thursday afternoon we may see some mild seabreeze effect, winth winds possibly from the SE, prior to the low slipping southwards.

In a nut shell, if you want my advice based on current computer models, I'd be pencilling in Friday morning, as opposed to either Thursday morning or afternoon.

As for that beach further to the north. She'll be solid and HEAVY on either days, with possibly the odd rogue 8ft+ set, but obviously winds are looking better for that girl on Friday in my books.

Let us know how you get on.

2108

[Donweather]

what he means Donnie is...

Is it worth ditchin work on Friday arvo and hitting up Burls for some golden arvo sun.....You a bit sick of Lattes by the end of the week Georgey?

[george]

yeah mate... there are only so many I can down in a week.....

by Friday.. I am over them....

[Donweather]

Gee Georgey you do well to last that long mate. I'm over this week already and it's only Tuesday!!!!

[george]

yeah.. Know the feeling.. This is not one of my better weeks. Then I see the surf will be an option later in the week and Friday is the earliest I can get to it... Fark u mortgage Gods!!!!!

[Donweather]

Here's the intensification we were talking about. There's some gale force winds embedded in that lot that's for sure.

Just a shame NZ had to be in the road thus limiting the fetch of the full force of the winds. If the low was a few hundred kilometres to the Nth of NZ then we'd be seeing an even larger swell event hitting our shores later in the week.

2109

[thermalben]

T'was even stronger 12 hours prior, and in the same position.

[Donweather]

Wooohoooo.....lovin an intensifying stationary low pressure system out in the Nth Tasman.

Just out of curiosity Ben, do you have access to Quikscat archive data, or do you personally archive every output from Quikscat yourself?

[thermalben]

Bit of both Don.. but you can access archive data at the bottom of the "previous day's data" page. You just need to enter the julian date of the time frame you're after (not all days are available though).

[Donweather]

Sweet. Thanks Ben. Once again I've learnt something again today.

BTW - I take it you're not forecasting J-Bay given that Surfline is all over the homepage?

[Donweather]

She's arrived and can only increase by this afternoon. Superbank is ridiculously crowded!!!

2111

[streetdaddy]

not to mention the tow crew already out there trying to snag the outside sets... it's not going to get that big, is it?

[Bill]

tow in's at snapper, what a joke aye.

Hope there's something left in the morning when I get back from melbs.

So, Don do you think there will be much left on the sunny coast Sat/Sun? I'm staying at mudjimba, so a boat trip to the island is on.

[Paul]

Just got back from surfing snapper. Best waves I have seen there for a long time. Crowds were a fucking joke though.

[Donweather]

What size we talking about Paul?

[Paul]

Don, it was a couple of foot overhead on the bigger inconsistent sets out by the rocks. Shoulder to occasional head high sets through greenmount/kirra.

[Donweather]

Cheers Paul.

Bill, I'll get back to ya on your query later tonight.

[stumars]

im heading down to yamba way tomorrow for 3 days. hopefully it delivers. looks like there still will be some swell tomorrow and into saturday.

[Donweather]

So, Don do you think there will be much left on the sunny coast Sat/Sun? I'm staying at mudjimba, so a boat trip to the island is on.Bill, Saturday by far is your best best of snaring the residual SE/ESE groundswell on offer. By Sunday it's all but gone and replaced by a smaller SSE windswell, and we all know how much the sunny coast loves SSE swells!!! Unfortunately from what I can ascertain from the wave buoys today, the radial spread of the ESE/SE groundswell from the source on Tuesday doesn't appear to be as much as one would have expected. The SC buoys are showing quite alot of reduction in swell heights compared to the GC buoys and this is likely to be attributable to the fact that the peak energy of the swell was directed generally at the mid NSW coastline, and hence the further away from this location, the lower the wave heights appear to be.

Therefore, given that wave heights on the SC are below expectations, based on current wave buoy data, then I'd say that Saturday morning may have some inconsistent residual 3ft sets, perhaps the very very odd 3ft+ freak set, waning throughout the day, probably to be back down around the 2ft class by Sunday morning (perhaps the odd freak 3ft set at best).

The only other scenario that I can think of as to why the SC buoys are less than the Goldy is perhaps the swell peak is delayed in reaching the SC, but given that the start of the groundswell hit the Tweed Buoy just before 9am this morning, and some groundswell hit the SC buoy just before lunch today, it's hard to see that this could be the case?

Hope ya find something.

Tweed Buoy
2112
Mooloolaba Buoy
2113

[Bill]

Great overview Don, great detail, fully appreciate the effort.

[Donweather]

The pleasures all mine mate.